In 1925, we saw shifts that would reshape the world over the coming century—New York became the world’s largest urban center, the first TV image was transmitted and Adolph Hitler published Mein Kampf. At the time, it was hard to predict the enduring financial strength, cultural changes and grievous actions that would result from all that. In 2025, things are different.
Intelligence analysts and leaders are calling 2025 the Decisive Decade for AI in both government and industry. Unlike a century ago, we can better anticipate the benefits and dangers of the advances and decisions we make from this point forward. From commerce to combat we’re at a critical crossroads—a tipping point. As geopolitical shifts and technological advancements converge, how can we best navigate this pivotal year?
Geopolitical AI Threats in the Decisive Decade
Multiple geopolitical trends are contributing complexity to the Decisive Decade. For example, the “Axis of Chaos”—China, Russia, Iran and North Korea—are building alliances that weren’t there before.
China, in particular, poses an issue. We thought cutting China off from the advanced semiconductors needed for AI would at least hobble them and widen the US’s lead in AI but, instead, they are closing the gap. They recently released Deep Seek, an AI chatbot that, according to its creators, uses less computing power and was developed at a fraction of the usual cost, upending the global industry. If that weren’t enough, China also found a way to hack our government systems.
While the US still leads in the development of AI overall and can learn a lot from recent advances by the Chinese and others, competitors are shortening the gap and developing new uses we are not prepared for. Our current policy in the US is to let businesses develop AI with few restrictions—an approach that has supported innovation in the past.
A 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) prioritizes AI research, industry collaboration and the identification of risks and mitigation strategies for the misuse of AI. With development of beneficial and threatening types AI quickening, governments will need to develop new regulatory frameworks to identify, evaluate, and respond to the variety of geopolitical AI threats coming down the pike.
Mitigating Global Challenges in the Decisive Decade
AI is considered akin to the nuclear bomb in warfare—countries who have it will quickly defeat countries who don’t. It is at least as impactful as demographic shifts and energy constraints are on military readiness. In fact, many characterize AI’s future role as being an actor in conflicts and not just a factor.
AI is already being used to great effect in the war between Russia and Ukraine. While both countries are using it, Ukraine has an intelligence edge thanks to AI—a factor that has benefited them in a war against a much larger adversary. Ukraine is using the technology in many of the same ways we would use AI in defense: to inform decision-making, gain geospacial intelligence, track Russian movements, allocate resources, drive operational efficiencies, impact cybersecurity and assess intelligence faster.
The Decisive Decade asks us to temper and assess AI’s ability to mitigate or compound global challenges like war, shifting powers, intelligence collection and international relations.
Defense Leadership in the Decisive Decade
In December 2024, a bipartisan House Task Force made proposals and recommendations for the use of AI across the board. In 2023, President Biden issued an Executive Order to reduce the risks that artificial intelligence poses to consumers, workers and national security. That order has since been rescinded by the new Administration.
The decisions the Trump administration makes in 2025 will shape the geopolitical balance in the world for decades to come. The US is poised to either solidify our global leadership or be surpassed by China or, more frightening, an Axis of Chaos focused on creating unrest.
Primer is committed to providing trusted AI solutions to navigate these challenges and we stand ready to lead the industry with innovations like RAG-V, a verification method that all but eliminates errors in retrieval-augmented generation.
Navigating 2025 and the Decisive Decade
The decisions we make today can ensure global stability, peace, and AI leadership tomorrow. This year is a critical midpoint in a transformative decade.
Join Primer’s upcoming fireside chat to hear expert perspectives on what 2025 holds for national security, AI innovation and how our nation’s dominance and global stability hang on the decisions Congress makes. Don’t miss this important discussion. Register now.